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No team has experienced a bigger makeover this offseason than the Seahawks. They traded Geno Smith to the Raiders for a third-round pick, cut receiver Tyler Lockett, and then sent receiver DK Metcalf to the Steelers for a second-rounder. At the time, I thought: “OK, if now they go cheap at quarterback and take a reset year, I’ll at least be able to see the plan.” They did not go cheap at quarterback, and they are not taking a reset year. Instead, they are going to pay Darnold $100.5 million over three years, with $55 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network. It’s not a massive deal if you really like the starting quarterback. It’s in line with the contract that Baker Mayfield signed with the Bucs last offseason, and it will almost certainly be cheaper than the new contract that Smith eventually signs with the Raiders.

So what’s the issue? The Seahawks, in my opinion, are paying Darnold for an outlier season. Darnold was in a great environment in Minnesota with Kevin O’Connell as his play caller and Justin Jefferson as his top wide receiver, and he had a passable offensive line. But before 2024, he had performed like one of the worst starters in the NFL. Now Darnold goes to Seattle, where, with all due respect to new Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, the scheme and play calling will almost certainly be a downgrade. I like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but he’s not Jefferson. And beyond Smith-Njigba, the receiver group gets thin quickly. Oh, and Seattle has an offensive line that has basically been below league average for over a decade. Darnold under more pressure is not something that’s likely to work out. Darnold gave the Vikings mediocre quarterback play last season, and now he’s in a worse environment. So where exactly does that leave the Seahawks? 

I have been burned enough in the past to know that players are capable of surprising and improving. Maybe that’s what will happen here with Darnold, and he’ll be an upgrade over Smith, and the Seahawks will contend in the NFC over the next few years. But if you’re asking me how I feel at this exact moment, I don’t see this series of moves working out for Seattle.

Grade: D

You skipped the intro, didn’t you? OK then, let me explain (again): I’ve ranked players based on how much I think they’ll get paid. That’s why Darnold is at no. 1. If you look at the nerd stats (like expected points added and success rate), Darnold performed somewhere in the range of the 16th to 18th best starter in the 2024 season. That might not sound super impressive, but let me remind you that we live in a world where the Atlanta Falcons gave Kirk Cousins a contract that pays him $45 million per year last offseason. The best-case scenario for Darnold is probably a deal that mirrors the one that Baker Mayfield signed with the Bucs last offseason ($33.3 million per year). It’s also possible that Darnold will get a deal that looks more like the one Geno Smith signed in Seattle a couple of years ago ($25 million per year). And there’s a chance that teams will just decide that he’s a starting option but not the starting option. That would mean a deal under $15 million per year.

What’s the most likely scenario? My cardinal rule when projecting quarterback contracts is to always go higher than you think you should. Teams are desperate for competent quarterback play, and it takes only one to fall in love with a player. When all is said and done, I think Darnold will be the highest-paid player on this list and the only one who nets a deal north of $30 million per year.

The hardest—and most important—thing to do in the NFL is build an efficient, explosive offense. Guess what the Bengals have when Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Higgins are on the field together? An efficient, explosive offense. And that’s going to give them a legit chance to get back to the Super Bowl in the years ahead. Higgins is returning to Cincinnati on a four-year, $115 million deal, according to Fox Sports. The deal was announced at the same time as Chase’s four-year, $161 million extension. Had Higgins hit the open market he almost certainly would have gotten more. But instead, he’s opting for the guaranteed money and a situation that he presumably is happy in. Is the Bengals roster perfect? Of course not. But they now have a plan: throw draft resources at the offensive line and the defense. In the end, this worked out well for Cincinnati.

Grade: B+

Since entering the league in 2020, Higgins’s 4,595 receiving yards rank 17th among all wide receivers. We don’t need a whole lot of analysis here. Higgins is just #good. He could step in and be an upgrade as a starting wide receiver on almost every NFL team. The risks of signing him? I see only one: Higgins has missed 10 games due to injuries the past two seasons. The Bengals have the option of tagging Higgins (again). They could also sign him to an extension. Or they could let him walk. Last summer, DJ Moore signed a deal with the Bears worth $27.5 million per year with over $43 million guaranteed. A slight increase from that deal that accounts for the salary cap bump is probably what it will take to land Higgins.

The Bucs are bringing Godwin back on a three-year, $66 million deal with $44 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network. This seems like a situation where Godwin probably could have gotten a bigger payday elsewhere, given the demand for quality wide receivers in the current market. Ultimately, it appears that he decided he’s happy extending his career with the team that drafted him. The Bucs get an excellent receiver at a reasonable price. Nice win for Tampa.

Grade: A-

Through the first seven weeks of the 2024 season, only Ja’Marr Chase had more receiving yards than Godwin (576). But an ankle injury prematurely ended Godwin’s season. He wins with route-running, toughness, and great hands. He is at his best lining up in the slot and working the middle of the field. Unless there are long-term concerns about how he’ll recover from the ankle injury, the floor for Godwin’s deal probably looks something like the four-year, $92 million deal (at $23 million per year) that Calvin Ridley signed with the Titans last offseason.

The Chiefs already have big issues at tackle and can’t afford to let Smith—a young, quality guard—just walk in free agency. Having him play on the franchise tag is feasible but not ideal since it would create a $23.4 million hold on their cap for this season and potentially limit their ability to make other moves. A long-term deal still seems like the most likely scenario here.

If he were to hit the open market, Smith would likely reset the guard market. He has been durable (he’s missed one game in four seasons) and has performed as one of the top right guards in the NFL. Philadelphia’s Landon Dickerson is currently the highest-paid guard, at $21 million per year. A long-term deal for Smith would almost certainly top that.

This ended up working out well for the Cowboys. According to NFL Network, they signed Odighizuwa to a four-year, $80 million deal ($20 million per year) with $39 million guaranteed. Often in these situations, when a player is so close to testing the market, you have to go above and beyond to motivate them to re-sign. That’s not really the case here. Odighizuwa’s deal comes in right around where I thought it would have if he’d gotten to free agency. It’s a good team-building strategy to hold on to the good players you draft—especially the ones at premium positions. That’s what the Cowboys did here, and they didn’t have to break the bank. Odighizuwa’s annual salary ranks 14th among defensive tackles. Bottom line: nice job by Dallas.

Grade: B+

Odighizuwa has been on the radar of the Football Hipsters for a couple of years now, and for good reason. Last season, he racked up 51 pressures from a defensive tackle alignment—that ranked second in the entire NFL, behind only Denver’s Zach Allen. And Odighizuwa’s been remarkably durable, having not missed a game in the past three seasons.

He gets a monster deal worth $26 million per year, according to NFL Network. Assuming that number holds up once the full structure of the deal is available, it’ll make Williams the third-highest-paid defensive tackle in the NFL. This is another “two things can be true” situation. One: If you have a bunch of cap space and are going to overpay in free agency, you should do it on young players with upside. That’s what the Patriots did here. There’s a chance that Williams’s best football is in front of him and he’ll perform like a top-10 defensive tackle in the years ahead. Two: This is a huge commitment to a player who has literally never been a full-time starter and hit the quarterback a total of 10 times last year while playing alongside Jalen Carter, an elite DT who was constantly drawing double-teams. Rule no. 1 of the offseason is don’t fall in love. And given how high the Patriots went with their financial offer to land Williams (after early buzz that he was headed to Carolina), it seems pretty obvious that Mike Vrabel and Co. fell in love. Bottom line: I get New England’s aggressiveness, and I like this player. But monster deals like this in free agency don’t have a strong track record of working out. 

Grade: C

Williams had a career-best five sacks and 10 quarterback hits last season in a rotational role in Philadelphia. He has started only 19 games in his career and has never played more than 50 percent of the defensive snaps in a single season. But given how young Williams is and how well he played on the best defense in the NFL last season, it’s reasonable to think that his arrow is pointing up and that he can develop into a high-level starter on his next deal. The three-year, $51.5 million contract that Dre’Mont Jones signed with the Seahawks a couple of years ago could be a good comp for Williams.

Aaaaand we have another top 10 pending free agent who won’t actually hit the market. Stanley is going back to Baltimore on a three-year, $60 million deal with $44 million guaranteed, according to The Athletic. He becomes the ninth left tackle to make at least $20 million per year. I had Stanley as a “buyer beware” free agent for other teams, given the durability issues from 2020 to 2023. But the Ravens know more about his injury history and his performance than anyone else. If they feel comfortable that Stanley can sustain last year’s high level of play, I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt. The Ravens, statistically, had the best offense in the NFL in 2024, and losing Stanley would have created a big hole to fill this offseason. Paying him comes with risk, but this is a reasonable use of resources.

Grade: B

Stanley gained more than almost any other player on this list with his 2024 performance. Going into last season, his durability (appeared in just 31 games over a four-year span) and performance were both questions—so much so that Stanley took a pay cut to stay with the Ravens. Then he stayed healthy the entire season and played at a high level. The NFL still places a premium on quality left tackle play, with eight players at the position making $20 million or more annually. If a team is confident that last season can be the norm for Stanley going forward, he’ll join that group. But that kind of financial commitment will come with risk.

The Giants are hilarious. They drafted and developed Xavier McKinney and then let him walk in free agency last offseason. He played great for the Packers. A year later, they turn around and pay Holland $15 million per year (three years, $45 million, according to ESPN). Do they have a plan? Or are they just throwing darts? In a vacuum, this is a reasonable signing. Holland has youth and upside, and New York didn’t have to break the bank. But overall, I have questions about the Giants’ process.

Grade: B

He might not have had the best contract year, but Holland is young and offers a defense range and versatility. Last year, free agent Xavier McKinney found a deal worth $16.75 million per year from the Packers. That could be a good comp for the type of deal Holland lands this offseason.

The Cardinals are in dire need of a pass rush, and they decided to address that by agreeing to terms with Sweat on a four-year, $76.4 million deal with $41 million guaranteed, according to ESPN. Sweat is a solid starter coming off a great Super Bowl performance, but he was up and down for most of the regular season. Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon knows Sweat well from their time together in Philadelphia. I think it’s unlikely that Sweat will prove to be an impact player for the Cardinals, but I get Arizona’s willingness to overpay to fill a need at a premium position.

Grade: C

A tough guy to project. On one hand, there’s usually a market for productive pass rushers under age 30. Sweat was arguably the Eagles’ best player in their Super Bowl win, and he’s coming off of an eight-sack season. On the other hand, Sweat ranked 60th in pressures and was solid but unspectacular for most of the regular season. Last year at this time, the Eagles were taking trade calls for Sweat, and he eventually was forced to take a pay cut. My guess here is that Sweat will find a deal in the neighborhood of $15 million per year, although it’s possible there will be a more robust market, given his strong finish.

You lied to me. ’Cause she said she’d never turn on me … you lied to me. Oh, sorry. You want actual analysis? Mack is returning to the Chargers on a one-year, fully guaranteed $18 million deal, according to The Athletic. It makes sense for Mack to go year to year at this stage of his career, and the Chargers need good players on defense. Mack gets a fair deal, and the Chargers don’t have to take on the risk of committing to him beyond 2025, given that he’s 34 years old. Feels like a win-win.

Grade: B+

The truth is that pass rushers at Mack’s age usually don’t find big deals in free agency. There are, however, exceptions—most notably, Von Miller. Entering his age-33 season in 2022, Miller found a deal from the Bills worth $20 million per year. It’s possible (but unlikely) that a team will take a similar gamble on Mack. Mack can still get it done against the run, and he had six sacks and 54 pressures (tied for 21st) last season. He could make sense on a short-term deal for a contending team.

The Vikings acquired Robinson in a trade with the Jaguars in late October. Robinson started 10 games for Minnesota but struggled down the stretch. In 2023, he missed eight games with the Jaguars due to an injury. Having said that, recent free agent history (Jonah Williams got $15 million per year last offseason) suggests that average left tackle play generally gets rewarded.

Baun won’t actually get to free agency. The Eagles are bringing him back on a three-year, $51 million deal that includes $34 million guaranteed, according to ESPN. The average annual value of $17 million per year makes Baun the fourth-highest-paid off-ball linebacker in the NFL. If you’re an Eagles fan, you’ll be thrilled about this. Baun proved to be a perfect fit in Vic Fangio’s defense and was one of the team’s best and most important players. Is there some risk, considering that he’s been a quality starter for only one season? Sure. But there wasn’t anything fluky about Baun’s 2024 performance. Given the Eagles’ limited financial resources this offseason, I think that it was the right move for them to prioritize Baun over their other free agents.

Grade: B+

He was legitimately one of the best defensive players in football last season. Playing off-ball linebacker for the first time in his career, Baun earned first-team All-Pro honors after piling up 151 tackles to go along with 3.5 sacks and five forced fumbles. He was excellent in coverage, against the run, and when blitzing the quarterback. That said, Baun started only 14 games during his first four NFL seasons. Other interested teams will have to be convinced that he can be as effective for them outside of Vic Fangio’s scheme as he was last season in Philadelphia. A deal in the neighborhood of $14 million per year would make Baun among the NFL’s five highest-paid linebackers.

It’s a three-year, $51 million deal. The Vikings had one of the NFL’s best defenses last season, and on paper, the 2025 version might be more talented. The $17 million per year average annual value here feels pretty good, given what the Patriots are paying Milton Williams. This approach from Minnesota makes sense to me, considering that quarterback J.J. McCarthy is on a rookie contract.

Grade: B

The Commanders tried to trade Allen, but couldn’t find a partner and ended up releasing him ahead of the start of free agency. He was limited to eight games in 2024 because of a pectoral injury but does not have a history of durability issues throughout his career (108 starts in eight seasons). Allen has been a quality starter for a long time and should generate plenty of interest on the open market.

Minnesota has reshaped both its offensive and defensive lines this offseason. In addition to bringing on defensive tackle Jonathan Allen, they’re also signing Hargrave to a two-year, $30 million deal with $19 million guaranteed, according to ESPN. If Hargrave, who missed all but three games in 2024 with a triceps injury, is healthy, he can still offer some value as a pass rusher. The Vikings have a first-year quarterback, and they’re going for it in what looks like a pretty wide-open NFC.

Grade: B

He’s not yet officially a free agent, but the 49ers announced that they are going to release him, so Hargrave will hit the open market. He was limited to three games last season because of a triceps injury, but has been a high-level starter with at least seven sacks in the previous three seasons.

The initial reporting on Murphy’s deal was $22 million per year, but it’s actually $18 million per year, according to Over the Cap. That’s a big difference! Murphy played well in Brian Flores’s scheme. He’s young, plays a premium position, and has had good production. The contract is in the same neighborhood as those of the other top corners in this class. Reasonable move here by Minnesota. 

Grade: B

Murphy signed with the Vikings in 2023 and thrived in Brian Flores’s scheme. He had six interceptions last season, and Murphy’s 27 passes defended over the past two years rank tied for ninth. He has the versatility to play outside or in the slot, and Murphy did not miss a game last season. He has a shot to be the highest-paid corner in this year’s free agency class.

It’s a three-year, $54 million deal for Ward, which falls in line with what Murphy got. The Colts are not usually active in free agency, but this year they’re spending big to reshape their secondary (Indianapolis also signed safety Cam Bynum). I like Ward as a player, but this is a bit aggressive for a team that doesn’t look competitive, given that he turns 30 next year.

Grade: B-

Considering that Ward suffered the tragic loss of his 1-year-old daughter in October, it feels misguided to analyze his on-field play in 2024. What we know is that he has had a very good career and is a high-level outside corner, and plenty of teams figure to be interested in adding him.

The Lions lost Carlton Davis III in free agency to the Patriots, but they turned around and quickly agreed to terms with Reed on a three-year, $48 million deal, according to The Athletic. I like this pivot from Detroit. Reed is a feisty starting corner who should fit the Lions’ culture and scheme well. Also, assuming the initial contract reports hold up, he’ll cost $4 million per year less than Davis.

Grade: B

He now has a four-year track record of being a very good starting corner. Reed plays with a physicality and competitiveness that teams will find appealing. His 42 passes defended since 2021 rank tied for 14th. When Reed was last a free agent in 2022, he signed a deal worth $11 million per year. He’s three years older now, but teams also should know what type of player they’d be getting. A slight raise probably makes sense.

Bolton is another top-20 pending free agent who is staying put before testing the open market. Bolton is signing a three-year, $45 million deal to remain in Kansas City, according to multiple reports. The $15 million per year average annual value puts Bolton among the five highest-paid off-ball linebackers in the NFL. There are a lot of moving parts in Kansas City, so it’s hard to analyze each move in a vacuum. But Bolton has been a steady, core piece on a very good defense. He never comes off the field, knows Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme well, and is one of the youngest players in this free agency class. In other words, this is a reasonable move for the Chiefs.

Grade: B

Bolton is a versatile, three-down linebacker who is very good against the run and can finish as a blitzer. Is he perfect in coverage? No. But the same can be said about most starting off-ball linebackers in the NFL. Given his youth and high production, Bolton should find plenty of teams interested in plugging him in as their middle linebacker.

The Chiefs are losing a core piece of their secondary. Reid is leaving Kansas City and signing with the Saints on a three-year, $31.5 million deal with $22.25 guaranteed, according to ESPN. Reid gives New Orleans a quality starter, and this looks like good value, given what some of the other safeties in this class are signing for this week. The Saints are still a stuck-in-the-mud franchise, but in isolation, this is a nice deal for New Orleans.

Grade: A-

The Chiefs signed Reid to a three-year, $31.5 million deal ($10.5 million per year) in 2022 and got excellent value, as he’s been one of their most dependable defensive players during this run of three straight Super Bowl trips. Given his durability and production, Reid figures to see a pay bump on his next deal.

I thought Young might be destined for a career of one-year deals like Jadeveon Clowney, but that’s not what the Saints had in mind. They locked Young up on a three-year, $51 million deal, according to NFL Network. Young might not be the most well-rounded edge defender, but he showed last year that he can provide an impactful pass rush when he’s healthy. The Saints as a franchise are stuck in irrelevancy, but in a vacuum, this contract is fine.

Grade: B

Here’s a list of players who had more pressures than Chase Young last season: Trey Hendrickson, Danielle Hunter, Myles Garrett, Jared Verse, and Micah Parsons. That’s it! He had the sixth-most pressures in the entire NFL! Maybe more importantly, Young stayed healthy for all 17 games. He should get a bump from the one-year, $13 million deal he signed last offseason.

It’s a one-year, $10 million deal, according to ESPN. This seems like a reasonable “buy low” situation for Tennessee. Jones is coming off a disappointing stint in Seattle, but he’d previously been a productive player and is only 28 years old. If Jones plays well in 2025, the two sides can consider a longer-term agreement next offseason.

Grade: B

In some ways, Jones serves as a cautionary tale for free agency. The Seahawks identified him as an ascending player and signed Jones to a three-year, $51.5 million deal in 2023, but they didn’t get a great return on their investment. Jones was a rotational player in Seattle last season, starting seven games and playing 55 percent of the snaps. Still, he’s relatively young, hasn’t missed a game the past two seasons, and has shown some pass-rushing chops. Jones has a good shot at finding a starting job somewhere.

Hey, we got at least one of our contract projections right! Reddick is headed to Tampa on a one-year, $14 million deal with $12 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network. This is a relative “buy low” situation, given how disastrous last season was for Reddick. I like the odds of a bounce-back for Reddick in 2025. I refuse to believe that he suddenly forgot how to rush the passer. Reddick gets paired with Todd Bowles and should be motivated, knowing he’ll be hitting the market again next season.

Grade: B+

The Jets acquired Reddick in a trade with the Eagles last year, but he didn’t like New York’s offers to restructure his contract and ended up sitting out part of the season. He eventually showed up and appeared in 10 games, finishing the year with one sack and three quarterback hits. In the previous four seasons, though, Reddick was fourth in the NFL with 50.5 sacks—behind only T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, and Trey Hendrickson. Because of how bizarre last season was for Reddick, he’s a tricky free agent projection, but a deal in the neighborhood of $12 million to $15 million per year could make sense for a team in need of some pass rushing juice.

Because he was released by the Jets, Adams didn’t have to wait for the formal start of free agency to find a new team. And now, he’s headed to Los Angeles on a two-year, $46 million deal with $26 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network. If Adams had signed this deal with another team, I’d be harping on the risks of signing a 32-year-old wide receiver to a contract this big. But you know what? I totally get it for the Rams! They are as “win now” as any team in the NFL, given that Matthew Stafford is 37 years old. In Adams, the Rams get a reliable veteran who will be a nice complement to Puka Nacua. If the Rams’ pass protection can hold up, this offense has a chance to be exciting. Could both Stafford and Adams show serious signs of decline, resulting in the Rams taking a step back in 2025? Of course. That’s the risk. But the Rams chose a direction and are going for it. I respect that.

Grade: B

We have ourselves a classic “two things can be true” situation here:

1. Adams is not the player he once was.

2. Adams can still help a team if the fit is right.

He finished last year with 85 catches for 1,063 yards. That was in three games with the Raiders and 11 games with the Jets. Adams’s yards per reception average (12.5) was pretty much right alongside his career average (12.4). Let’s pair him with a good quarterback on a contending team and see what he has left. 

ESPN is reporting a three-year, $69 million deal with $26 million guaranteed for Diggs. If those are the actual terms once the ink dries, I’ll be surprised. Diggs is in his 30s, coming off of an ACL injury, and we are two weeks into free agency. If he really got that kind of money, his agent deserves some kind of award. Having said that, I don’t mind the Patriots acting in desperation here. They were unable to land any of the top wide receivers on the market and had to do something to help Drake Maye. The risk (age, injury) is obvious. But Diggs was productive when healthy last season. If New England can find an impactful pass catcher in the draft, maybe the team can at least establish some kind of competency at the wide receiver position for 2025.

Grade: C+

Before suffering a season-ending torn ACL in Week 8, Diggs showed he could still be productive. His 496 yards in the first eight weeks ranked 16th among all wide receivers. But given his age and the injury, there are obvious risks. A one-year deal on a team in need of a veteran pass catcher could make sense.

He didn’t have much of an impact after going to Buffalo in a trade last season. Cooper finished the season as essentially the Bills’ no. 4 wide receiver, but according to The Athletic, a wrist injury at least partially explained the diminished role. Over the past three seasons, Cooper ranks 18th among wide receivers with 2,957 yards. Wide receivers over 30 usually face a significant risk of decline, but if he’s healthy, Cooper could still help a contending team in 2025.

He has agreed to a three-year, $54 million deal with $34.5 million fully guaranteed. This one’s a little surprising. Davis has missed at least four games in each of the past four seasons, he turns 29 this season, and he is going to be their CB2, since they already have standout Christian Gonzalez at the other spot. I know the Patriots have plenty of cap space, but if you’re going to overpay for a free agent, I’m thinking you should do it either on the offensive side of the ball to help Drake Maye or for a younger guy with more upside. I like Davis as a player, but I’m not sure this was the best use of resources.

Grade: C

The Lions traded for Davis before last season, and he started 13 games before suffering a season-ending jaw injury. Durability has been a question, as Davis has missed 20 games over the past four seasons. Still, he should find a market among teams looking to add a feisty, outside man-coverage corner.

This one-year, $12 million deal makes sense for both sides. Koonce has been a good player for the Raiders, but he’s coming off an injury. An ideal scenario would be if Koonce stays healthy and returns to form and the Raiders sign him to a long-term contract. Smart move by the Raiders, and I like that Koonce is betting on himself with hopes of landing a bigger deal next offseason.

Grade: A-

He’s one of the toughest projections on this list. Koonce had a breakout 2023 season with eight sacks and 17 quarterback hits. But he suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice last September and didn’t play a snap. He could be looking at a one-year, prove-it deal before reentering the market next offseason.

The Seahawks appear to be gutting their offense, but they are bringing back a key part of a defense that overachieved in the second half of last season. Jones is staying in Seattle on a three-year, $33 million deal with $15 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network. This seems like a win for the Seahawks, given that Jones agreed to terms before testing the open market, and other linebackers like Zack Baun, Nick Bolton, and Jamien Sherwood got deals that were significantly richer than this (at least according to the terms that were initially reported). Given how well Jones fit in Mike Macdonald’s scheme last season, keeping him for $11 million per year seems like a no-brainer.

Grade: A-

He’s played on three teams over the last two seasons. The Rams drafted Jones in the third round of the 2021 draft but then traded him to the Titans before last season. After six games, Tennessee traded Jones to the Seahawks, and he thrived in Seattle, starting 10 games and transforming the defense into one of the better ones in the NFL in the second half of the season. Last offseason, the Texans signed Azeez Al-Shaair to a three-year, $34 million deal ($11.3 million per season). That could be a good comp for the type of contract that Jones is looking for.

It doesn’t take much detective work to figure out that the Bears’ priority this offseason has been shoring up the interior of their offensive line in front of Caleb Williams. Chicago already traded for guards Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney, and now they’ve added Dalman, the top center on the market, on a three-year, $42 million deal with $28 million guaranteed, according to The Athletic. Whether this offensive line will actually be good is up for debate, but the Bears are dumping their resources into the right place. New head coach Ben Johnson needs to try to create an infrastructure that sets Williams up for success. As my middle school gym teacher used to say, E for effort. 

Grade: B

He missed eight games last season due to an ankle injury but has 40 starts under his belt over the past three years. Dalman looks like the top center option on the board. Last offseason, Tyler Biadasz signed a three-year, $30 million deal with the Commanders. That’s probably the range that Dalman will be looking at this offseason.

He’s headed to Minnesota on a five-year, $88 million deal, according to ESPN. That’s big money ($17.6 million per year) for a player coming off an injury, but the guard market is exploding, and at least the Vikings are spending on an ascending player with upside. 

Grade: B

Fries looked like an ascending player before he suffered a season-ending injury after five starts in 2024. If teams are convinced that Fries will make a full recovery this offseason, he could find a surprisingly rich deal in free agency.

The NFL is hilarious. Fields was available to any interested team last offseason, and all the Bears could get for him was a sixth-round pick. He started six games for the Steelers, performed somewhere between slightly below average and bad, and got benched for Russell Wilson. You would think those events wouldn’t have done much to boost Fields’s value. But apparently, they did. The Jets are now signing him to a two-year, $40 million deal with $30 million guaranteed, according to ESPN. New York didn’t have great options at quarterback, and this is low-level money for a starter. But still, $30 million guaranteed seems aggressive for someone who’s never put together a season of even average quarterback play. Bottom line: I get it, but it seems like the Jets could have been a bit more patient here.

Grade: C

There are some clear warning signs here. We found out what the league thinks of Fields last offseason when the Bears traded him to the Steelers for just a sixth-round pick. We then found out what the Steelers thought of him when they benched him for Russell Wilson. Fields ended up starting the first six games of last season, and if we look at the 44 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks, he ranked 17th in expected points added per pass play and 33rd in dropback success rate. The question is: Will any team view him as a borderline starter like the Vikings viewed Darnold last offseason when they gave him a one-year, $10 million deal? Or will Fields have to settle strictly for a backup role?

I am going to let The Ringer’s resident Giants fan, Danny Heifetz, do the analysis on Slayton’s three-year, $36 million deal. From Heifetz’s Bluesky account:

This is the same deal--3 for $36 million-- the Giants would not pay Saquon Barkley last year. Now they're giving that same deal to Darius Slayton, who they have been trying to get rid of for 5 years. The Giants are the absolute worst and I hate rooting for them.

I like Slayton and wanted to see him with a good quarterback. It doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.

Grade: C

A couple of years ago during a podcast, Ringer legend Danny Kelly and I tried to start the Slayton Hive. Unfortunately (and maybe predictably?), it didn’t take. But the thesis still stands: He might be good! Not WR1 good. But “productive starting wide receiver on a decent offense” good. Since he entered the NFL in 2019, Slayton ranks 35th among wide receivers in yards, and he’s averaged a healthy 15.0 YPR for his career. All I’m saying is: Let’s see what he looks like with a good QB.

Carolina plans to add Moehrig on a three-year deal worth $51 million, per NFL Network. Assuming this contract number holds up, Moehrig will be paid as a top-five safety in the NFL at $17 million per year. Moehrig is coming off his best season; he excelled in a role that asked him to play more downhill. The Panthers seem to be projecting that he’ll build on that performance and develop into one of the NFL’s better overall safeties. I like Moehrig, but this is a pretty aggressive move by Carolina that I don’t think I would have been comfortable making, given all of the other needs on the Panthers’ roster.

Grade: C

Moehrig played closer to the line of scrimmage last season and set career highs in tackles and passes defended. He’s also been incredibly durable, having missed just two games in four seasons. Since 2021, only three defensive players have logged more snaps than Moehrig. He’ll likely be one of the most sought-after safety options in free agency.

Hufanga is headed to Denver on a three-year deal worth up to $45 million with $20 million guaranteed, according to ESPN. It’s impossible to ignore the risk here, given Hufanga’s injury history. But what I like about this fit is that there’s real upside. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph employs a creative scheme, and when Hufanga was at his best with the 49ers, he was creating chaos. He’ll get a chance to find that gear in Joseph’s defense. If Hufanga has bad injury luck, it’s all moot. But I get the vision.

Grade: B

He was a first-team All-Pro in 2022 but has been limited to just 17 total games in the past two seasons because of injuries. There is obvious upside with Hufanga as a hard-hitting, playmaking safety. But there’s obvious risk too, given his injury history. Hufanga is young enough that he could look at a one-year, prove-it deal where he turns in a healthy, productive 2025 season and then cashes in as a free agent next year.

Becton goes to Los Angeles on a two-year, $20 million deal, according to NFL Network. We know that the Chargers want to field a physical, running offense under Jim Harbaugh, and that’s where Becton thrives. Becton will need to continue to improve in pass protection to keep Justin Herbert upright. But given some of the monster deals handed out to guards in free agency, $10 million per year for Becton seems like decent value.

Grade: B+

Becton signed a one-year, $2.75 million deal with the Eagles late in the 2024 offseason and resurrected his career as a quality guard, starting 15 games for the Super Bowl champs. The position switch from tackle suited Becton well as he pancaked defenders in the run game and proved to be adequate in pass protection. Interested teams will need to be confident that Becton can be as successful away from Stoutland University.

A simple guiding philosophy for the Jets this offseason is holding on to good, young players who look like a fit for new head coach Aaron Glenn’s culture. Sherwood seems to match that description, and he’s returning to New York on a three-year, $45 million deal with $30 million guaranteed, according to ESPN. Sherwood was excellent for the Jets last season, earning team MVP honors from his peers. Assuming the initial financial details on the new deal hold up, Sherwood will be paid like a top-five off-ball linebacker. That’s an aggressive signing by the Jets, but given how young Sherwood is, I understand them betting on his upside.

Grade: B

Sherwood came out of nowhere to finish last season with 154 tackles—tied for fourth in the NFL. He also finished fifth in stops, which is a Next Gen Stats metric for any tackle that results in a positive result for the defense. Sherwood’s efforts as a 16-game starter were enough for his teammates to vote him as the Jets’ MVP. He’s an intriguing under-the-radar option for teams in need of a three-down starting linebacker.

Jenkins never quite put it all together in Chicago. He has had durability issues, missing 23 games over four seasons, and his performance in pass protection has been up-and-down. But there is upside here if Jenkins can stay healthy—specifically if he signs with a team that employs a run-heavy scheme.

Douglas has bounced around, having started games for four different teams during his eight-year career. The Bills acquired Douglas from the Packers during the 2023 season, and he started 23 games for them, including 15 last season. Douglas can provide competent corner play for a zone-heavy defense that needs a short-term starter.

The Bears continue to invest in both sides of the line of scrimmage, agreeing to sign Odeyingbo to a three-year, $48 million deal with $32 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network. Odeyingbo is a versatile defensive lineman who put up decent pressure numbers last season, and given how young he is, he could be an ascending player. This is a nice deal for a player who had just three sacks last season and has had 19 career starts in four seasons. But if the Bears’ projection is right, at least there’s some upside.

Grade: B

He had 50 QB pressures last season, which ranked tied for 28th in the NFL, and Odeyingbo had an eight-sack season in 2023. He hasn’t missed a game in the past three years and could be an intriguing option for teams in need of a competent starter or rotational piece.

Landry is reuniting with Mike Vrabel on a three-year, $43.5 million deal with $26 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network. Landry’s sack production (nine last year) probably overrates his actual level of play, and it was telling that no team wanted to trade for him on his previous contract. But the Patriots need players, and Vrabel knows Landry’s strengths and weaknesses well from their time together in Tennessee. The $14.5 million average annual value puts him outside the top-15 for edge rushers, so it’s not like this is some kind of massive overpay. Bottom line? Maybe not the most inspiring signing, but it’s fine.

Grade: B

He’s another guy who fits in the category of “team couldn’t find a trade partner so released him.” Landry’s 19.5 sacks over the past two seasons are tied for 14th most in the NFL. But he tied for 58th in terms of pressures last season. In other words: Don’t overrate the sacks, but in the right role, Landry should be able to provide some pressure off the edge.

Here’s a list of quarterbacks who have started at least 10 games at age 42 or older during the Super Bowl era: Tom Brady, Warren Moon. That’s it! Rodgers isn’t a free agent yet, but the Jets are expected to release him in March, making him an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career. Statistically, he ranked 24th in EPA per play and 25th in success rate last year. Those are below-average stats for him, his decline is obvious, and most importantly: If you sign Rodgers, you’re signing up for the whole Rodgers experience. I just don’t know that any team will want to do that.

Did I consider making my analysis LOLGiants and then moving on? Yes. But I can give you at least a little bit more. Wilson is signing a one-year deal worth $10.5 million guaranteed, according to ESPN. Incentives can push the deal up to $21 million. On the surface, there’s nothing that bad about the terms. It’s pretty standard for the “we don’t want him to be our quarterback, but we might be stuck with him as our quarterback” contract. But the Giants just signed Jameis Winston. Isn’t he in pretty much the same category? Why do they need both? It’s just another reminder that GM Joe Schoen is desperate to save his job, but he has no idea how to do so. He’s throwing darts and crossing his fingers. The signing also seems like a signal that the Giants don’t think they’re coming out of the draft with a viable starting quarterback. So with their backs against the wall, this regime is going to go into the 2025 season relying on Wilson and Winston. I have no idea how any Giants fan could possibly be excited about that.

Grade: D

Wilson started 11 games last season and ranked 22nd in both EPA per play and success rate. He still throws a pretty deep ball, but there’s not a whole lot else to bank on at this stage of his career. The best-case scenario for him is probably finding a place that will let him compete for a starting job.